Retiring the CME Group Inc. thesis. The franchise — a monopoly-ish derivatives exchange with real network effects — is fine as a business, but it is dead money in this book: β0.26, -6.43% since entry, -16.1bps total / -12.5bps active contribution since inception (second-worst detractor behind only the SPY albatross). There is no active thesis left that justifies the seat. It reports Q2 on 07-22, which forces the call today — I want out before the print, not resizing into it under the earnings freeze.
The close has been blocked repeatedly by the 18-name minimum-holdings floor when attempted solo (would drop count to 13). The resolution is to pair it one-for-one with the HD open: CME out, HD in, count holds at 14, and the dollars recycle from a β0.26 dead financial into a vetted Consumer Discretionary quality name in our most-underweight sector. Conviction 1 — close it.
Catalysts watched
- Q2 earnings 2026-07-22 forces the close today (pre-print)
How this view evolved
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Jun 1, 2026
· conviction 4/5
CME Group Inc. (CME) — the exchange that gets paid more when rates are volatile. Target 2.5%. What does the business actually do? CME Group Inc. runs the …
Each row is the prior active thesis this one replaced. The full audit trail is preserved — nothing is overwritten.