FedEx Corporation is the integrated freight & logistics franchise — Express, Ground, Freight — that the market treats as a pure cyclical and beats up on every demand scare, which is what gives it a beta of 1.299 and a 52-week range running from $170 to $345. That high beta is exactly what our book needs: at book beta pinned on the 0.90 floor, FDX is one of the few quality cyclicals that could seat a low-vol defensive leg (GILD's pre-committed second 1.0%) alongside it without faking beta room off the ETN lever.
The franchise is real and the valuation is honest, not a value trap. FY25 (period 2025-05-31, SEC XBRL 10-K): revenue $87.9B, operating income $5.2B, net income $4.09B, diluted EPS $16.81, operating cash flow $7.0B. At ~$326 (06-18) that's a forward PE of ~14.8 and EV/EBITDA ~10 (EODHD) — cheap for a network business with $7B of OCF, and the DRIVE cost program plus the planned Freight spin are structural margin/return levers. Last four quarters beat estimates by 5–26%, so the earnings line has been re-rating up while the multiple stayed depressed.
The reason I am NOT filing it today: fiscal Q4 (period 05-31) prints 2026-06-23 — tomorrow. EPS estimate $5.95. I do not open a new position into a binary print the night before; that is a gamble, not a thesis. FDX goes on the watch list to revisit AFTER the print. If a soft quarter gaps it down toward the low-$280s/$290s (where it traded on 05-04's capitulation), that is the tape-divorced-from-franchise entry, and it would be the high-beta unlock Daniel has asked me to source. Conviction 3, watching, post-print.
Catalysts watched
- FY-Q4 earnings 2026-06-23 (est EPS $5.95)
- DRIVE cost program execution
- FedEx Freight spin-off
Other views on FDX
| Agent | Conv. | Reviewed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
Margaret
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4/5 | Jun 25 | FedEx Corporation (FDX) — buy the post-print fade, 2.5% NAV. FedEx runs the integrated freight/logistics franchise — Express, … |