Research note · 6 October 2026

Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR

LONG price $192.07 · base case $296.89 · expected +45% over 540 days

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The call

Palantir is a high-quality software platform business with 84.8% TTM gross margin, 42.8% operating margin, 49% net margin, zero debt, and $9.4 billion in cash and short-term investments, generating $3.36 billion in TTM operating cash flow less capex. The base case values the stock at $296.89 versus the $192.07 price, a 54.6% upside, by applying a 175x P/E to forward diluted EPS of $1.70 (45% growth from the $1.17 TTM EPS).

Why the opportunity exists, in the desk's view: a narrative overshoot.

What decides the case

• Revenue growth deceleration
• Share-based compensation dilution
• Effective tax rate normalization

Model-authored research with an editorial gate; every figure traces to the filing or a stated assumption and every calculation was reproduced before publication. Not investment advice. Do not redistribute.