Research note · 2 October 2026

Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR

LONG price $188.75 · base case $250.96 · expected +35% over 365 days

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The call

Palantir is a high-growth software platform company delivering exceptional margin expansion and cash flow generation as AIP adoption accelerates across both government and commercial segments. TTM revenue growth of 56% and a TTM net margin of 49% demonstrate powerful operating leverage, supported by $11.2B in TRDV and raised full-year 2026 guidance of $8.15B in revenue and $4.5B-$4.7B in adjusted FCF. The base-case valuation of $250.96 represents a 33% upside to the current $188.75 price, implying the market is discounting the sustainability of AI-driven demand and the normalization of GAAP profitability.

Why the opportunity exists, in the desk's view: a narrative overshoot.

What decides the case

• Revenue growth sustainability as the base expands
• Share-based compensation (SBC) dilution
• Customer concentration and contract termination risk

Model-authored research with an editorial gate; every figure traces to the filing or a stated assumption and every calculation was reproduced before publication. Not investment advice. Do not redistribute.