Research note · 6 October 2026

Okta Inc OKTA

SHORT price $218.67 · base case $190.90 · expected +15% over 540 days

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The call

Okta trades at 131.73x trailing diluted EPS ($1.66 TTM), a multiple that embeds a growth reacceleration the filings do not support. Revenue growth has decelerated from a 28% five-year CAGR to 11.8% last fiscal year and 10.9% year-to-date, with management guiding 10-11% for FY27. Reported GAAP EPS is structurally constrained by recurring share-based compensation of $503M TTM (16.4% of revenue) and intangible amortization of $85M TTM, costs management excludes from non-GAAP measures but cannot exclude from GAAP EPS. A base-case multiple of 100x on forecast EPS of $1.91 yields $190.90, roughly 13% below the $218.67 price. The probability-weighted value of $186.13 is 14.9% below the price.

Why the opportunity exists, in the desk's view: a narrative overshoot.

What decides the case

• Reported EPS growth trajectory
• Revenue growth deceleration
• AI-agent identity monetization

Exposures

• Interest rates, mixed for the equity

Model-authored research with an editorial gate; every figure traces to the filing or a stated assumption and every calculation was reproduced before publication. Not investment advice. Do not redistribute.