Research note · 1 October 2026

Goosehead Insurance Inc GSHD

LONG price $47.15 · base case $58.94 · expected +19% over 540 days

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The call

Goosehead Insurance is trading at $47.15, well below a base-case target of $58.94, reflecting a temporary earnings dislocation driven by a one-time FY2025 net income dip to $27.8M and a 224% surge in interest expense to $23.8M. The business fundamentals are accelerating, with TTM revenue growing 21.73% to $402.2M and strong client retention of 85%. As the higher-margin renewal book scales and interest costs stabilize following a credit agreement amendment that reduced the rate by 0.50%, EPS is forecast to grow to $1.30, justifying a re-rating toward the lower end of the company's historical valuation band.

Why the opportunity exists, in the desk's view: a transient setback.

What decides the case

• Insurance market cycle and contingent commissions
• Debt service and interest expense
• Franchise network contraction vs corporate expansion

Model-authored research with an editorial gate; every figure traces to the filing or a stated assumption and every calculation was reproduced before publication. Not investment advice. Do not redistribute.