Research note · 1 October 2026
Gulfport Energy Operating Corp GPOR
LONG price $153.35 · base case $256.79 · expected +48% over 365 days
The call
Gulfport Energy Operating Corp (GPOR) is an independent, natural gas-weighted E&P company trading at a significant discount to its intrinsic value. The market is over-discounting near-term cash flow recovery, fixating on historical commodity cyclicality and 2024 full-cost ceiling impairments rather than the company's current structural margin expansion. With 2025 operating cash flow of $803.2 million and base capital expenditures guided down to approximately $415-430 million for 2026, GPOR is positioned to generate substantial free cash flow.
Why the opportunity exists, in the desk's view: a cyclical trough.
What decides the case
- Natural gas commodity pricing
- Capital allocation efficiency
- Midstream cost inflation
What breaks the case
| Shock to the base case | Value per share | vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Base case as planned | $256.79 | 67% |
| Starting cash flow 10% higher | $287.67 | 88% |
| Growth 5 points higher every year | $329.84 | 115% |
| Discount rate 100bp higher | $214.33 | 40% |
| Starting cash flow 10% lower | $225.90 | 47% |
| Growth 5 points lower every year | $195.91 | 28% |
| Cost of debt 200bp higher | $238.22 | 55% |
The base case equals the price at a 11.5% discount rate, or if every year's growth were -9.2% points different. Thresholds, not forecasts.
Model-authored research with an editorial gate; every figure traces to the filing or a stated assumption and every calculation was reproduced before publication. Not investment advice. Do not redistribute.