Research note · 2 October 2026

Apple Inc. AAPL

SHORT price $333.69 · base case $302.15 · expected +12% over 540 days

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The call

Apple trades at 38.27x trailing diluted EPS, above its own five-year maximum of 37.47x, on a TTM EPS of $8.72 that includes a non-recurring tariff-refund benefit of approximately $0.11 per share. The base-case value of $302.15 (33x on forecast EPS of $9.16) sits below the $333.69 price, implying roughly 9.5% downside, while the probability-weighted value of $292.99 implies 12.2% downside.

Why the opportunity exists, in the desk's view: a narrative overshoot.

What decides the case

• Gross margin under supply constraints and tariffs
• Services growth and AI monetization
• Tariff and trade policy trajectory

Model-authored research with an editorial gate; every figure traces to the filing or a stated assumption and every calculation was reproduced before publication. Not investment advice. Do not redistribute.